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Category: Accelerating Change

Third Stage Boost: Statistical Mechanics and Neuromorphic Computing – Part 1

Third Stage Boost: Statistical Mechanics and Neuromorphic Computing – Part 1

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Next-Generation Neural Network Architectures: More Brain-Like   Three generations of artificial intelligence.. The third generation is emerging … right about … now. That’s what is shown in this figure, presented in log-time scale. Brief history of AI in log-time scale The first generation of AI, symbolic AI, began conceptually around 1954, and lasted until 1986; 32 years. On the log-time scale shown in the figure above, this entire era takes place under the first curve; the black bell-shaped curve on…

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2025 and Beyond

2025 and Beyond

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Artificial Intelligence and Jobs by the Year 2025: One of my biggest take-aways from the recent (May, 2017) NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference) was less about the technology, and more about the near-term jobs impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. Making smart education and career decisions is crucial, as the emerging combination of AI and robotics will have a huge impact on jobs. Those of you studying artificial intelligence, deep learning, and neural networks will have a stronger career…

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Deep Learning: The Fast Evolution of Artificial Intelligence

Deep Learning: The Fast Evolution of Artificial Intelligence

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Just one of the slides from a presentation that I’m working up for an upcoming online presentation at Northwestern University, but it tells the story. Just one more thought: here’s the rapid pace of evolution within just the image analysis realm of AI, largely due to multiple layers (sometimes, many, many, MANY multiple layers) of networks, a good fraction of which are Convolutional Neural Networks, or CNNs. Error rates have dropped from over 15% to about 3% within just four…

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GPUs, CPUs, MIPS, and Brain-Based Computation

GPUs, CPUs, MIPS, and Brain-Based Computation

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GPUs, CPUs, MIPS, and Brain-Based Computation Quick links to useful diagrams: Michael Galloy has produced a good chart showing increase in GPU vs CPU processing over this past decade; nicely continues the line of thought about nonlinear increases in processing power. Look at: http://michaelgalloy.com/2013/06/11/cpu-vs-gpu-performance.html See also post by Karl Rupp: http://www.karlrupp.net/2013/06/cpu-gpu-and-mic-hardware-characteristics-over-time/ Also, this post by NVIDIA: http://http.developer.nvidia.com/GPUGems2/gpugems2_chapter29.html For detailed discussion (including appropriate algorithms/methods), but NOT figures, see: http://pcl.intel-research.net/publications/isca319-lee.pdf Debunking the 100X GPU vs. CPU Myth: An Evaluation of Throughput Computing…

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Good Read on Modeling Social Emergent Phenomena – But Still Not There Yet!

Good Read on Modeling Social Emergent Phenomena – But Still Not There Yet!

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Philip Ball – Critical Mass The most important thing we can do right now – given the huge changes ahead of us – both in society, the world, and technology – is to get some sort of “handle” on what’s coming up. By that, I mean a good set of models. And as a result, I’m on a search for good models. Those that I know, those that are new. Those that make sense, and those that don’t. (We need…

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Modeling Trends in Long-Term IT as a Phase Transition

Modeling Trends in Long-Term IT as a Phase Transition

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The most reasonable model for our faster-than-exponential growth in long-term IT trends is that of a phase transition. At a second-order phase transition, the heat capacity becomes discontinuous. The heat capacity image is provided courtesy of a wikipedia site on heat capacity transition(s). L. Witthauer and M. Diertele present a number of excellent computations in graphical form in their paper The Phase Transition of the 2D-Ising Model. There is another interesting article by B. Derrida & D. Stauffer in Europhysics…

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Going Beyond Moore’s Law

Going Beyond Moore’s Law

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Super-Exponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology Interesting read for the day: Super-exponential long-term trends in Information Technology by B. Nagy, J.D. Farmer, J.E. Trancik, & J.P. Gonzales, shows that which Kurzeil suggested in his earlier work on “technology singularities” is true: We are experiencing faster-than-exponential growth within the information technology area. Nagy et al. are careful to point out that their work indicates a “mathematical singularity,” not to be confused with the more broadly-sweeping notion of a “technological singularity” discussed…

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Accelerating Change – A Good Read

Accelerating Change – A Good Read

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Writing to you within hours of summer solstice, 2010 – we now have 2 1/2 years (approximately) to the time that has been targeted by multiple cultures as a “pivot point” in human experience. The idea that we are accelerating in our experience on this planet is not new. Right now, this idea is receiving a great deal of attention – too much of which is “acceleration” of emotional content, and not an objective assessment. In this sense, John Smart’s…

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